Dívida Pública e o Risco de Default nos Governos Subnacionais Entre 2007 E 2017

O objetivo e investigar a relacao da divida publica, com as despesas com pessoal, despesas previdenciarias, divida liquida consolidada, os restos a pagar, o resultado primario, e as receitas realizadas, com o risco de os entes subnacionais entrar em situacao de default de 2007 a 2017. A pesquisa e descritiva e a abordagem e quantitativa, tendo sido utilizados dados disponibilizados nos sitios eletronicos dos entes subnacionais. A amostra do estudo e composta de 16 estados, excluindo 10 entes e o DF, em virtude de nao acesso aos dados. Verificou-se por meio da regressao logistica que as despesas previdenciarias, divida liquida consolidada e receitas realizadas apresentam relacoes significativas quanto a probabilidade de default ao nivel de 5%. Ja as variaveis resultado primario e restos a pagar nao apresentaram influencia significativa ao risco de default . Quanto maiores as receitas realizadas menores as chances de default, preservadas demais condicoes, bem como, maiores valores de divida liquida consolidada e despesas previdenciarias elevam o risco de calamidade financeira. Constatou-se que ha uma necessidade premente de politicas publicas que voltem a atencao para o uso discricionario dos gastos previdenciarios, composicao da divida liquida consolidada, e a potencializacao do aumento arrecadatorio dos cofres publicos, de modo a contribuir para uma solida administracao publica, evitando o endividamento generalizado dos Estados. Espera-se que o estudo contribua para incentivar acoes dirigidas quanto a evolucao da divida publica, bem como, das despesas previdenciarias e receitas realizadas, com o intuito de garantir a sustentabilidade das financas publicas. Palavras-chave: Calamidade Financeira. Administracao Publica. Endividamento. Responsabilidade Fiscal. Financas Publicas. ABSTRACT The objective is to investigate the relation of public debt, with personnel expenses, social security expenditures, consolidated liquid debt, the remnants to pay, primary income, and the revenues realized, with the risk that the subnational entities will default from 2007 to 2017. The research is descriptive and the approach is quantitative, using data made available on the websites of subnational entities. The study sample is composed of 16 states, excluding 10 entities and DF, due to non-access to the data. It was verified through the logistic regression that the social security expenditures, consolidated liquid debt and realized revenues present significant relationships regarding the probability of default at the level of 5%. On the other hand, the primary outcome variables and remnants payable did not have a significant influence on the risk of default. The higher the realized revenues, the lower the probability of default, the preservation of other conditions, as well as higher consolidated net debt and social security expenses increase the risk of financial calamity. It was found that there is a pressing need for public policies that focus attention on the discretionary use of social security expenditures, the composition of the consolidated liquid debt, and the increase in the collection of public coffers in order to contribute to a sound public administration, avoiding the general indebtedness of the States. It is hoped that the study will contribute to encouraging actions aimed at the evolution of public debt, as well as social security expenditures and revenues, in order to guarantee the sustainability of public finances. Key words: Financial Calamity. Public administration. Indebtedness. Fiscal Responsibility. Public finances.