The effectiveness of the autoregressive models in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland | Zendy

Agnieszka Tłuczak | Zendy; Mirosława Szewczyk | Zendy

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The effectiveness of the autoregressive models in forecasting the agricultural prices in Poland

Author(s) -

Agnieszka Tłuczak,

Mirosława Szewczyk

Publication year - 2010

Publication title -

oeconomia copernicana

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.59

H-Index - 13

eISSN - 2353-1827

pISSN - 2083-1277

DOI - 10.12775/oec.2010.006

Subject(s) - autoregressive model , agriculture , econometrics , purchasing , economics , limiting , price risk , autoregressive integrated moving average , time series , statistics , financial economics , mathematics , operations management , engineering , geography , mechanical engineering , archaeology , futures contract

The forecast of agricultural prices is one of the most important factors in making decision on production farms. The appropriate forecast allows for limiting the risk connected with one’s economic activity. In this study autoregressive models have been used, which helped to determine the price forecast for agricultural products in the purchasing centers in the second half of 2010. To determine the quality of forecast the average ex-post errors of the past forecasts have been used. The achieved results show that autoregressive models are an effective tool in fore-casting the agricultural prices in Poland.

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