Maritime Transportation System Safety – Modeling and Identification

This article introduces a concept of critical infrastructure systems’ safety states model. The model construction is based on popular technical systems’ safety states models as well as notions specified in acts of law and other studies concerning crisis management. The paper includes concepts of proposed model usage possibilities - methods and procedures for estimating unknown basic parameters of safety states transitions process. These include identifying the distributions of its conditional lifetime at safety states, estimating probabilities of its staying at safety states at the initial moment, probabilities of its transitions between safety states, and parameters of the distribution for the description of its conditional lifetimes at safety states.