Open AccessInferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Author(s) -
Thibaut Jombart,
Kevin van Zandvoort,
Timothy W. Russell,
Christopher I Jarvis,
Amy Gimma,
Sam Abbott,
Samuel Clifford,
Sebastian Funk,
Hamish Gibbs,
Yang Liu,
Carl A. B. Pearson,
Nikos I Bosse,
Rosalind M Eggo,
Adam J. Kucharski,
W. John Edmunds
Publication year - 2020
Publication title -
wellcome open research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.298
H-Index - 21
ISSN - 2398-502X
DOI - 10.12688/wellcomeopenres.15786.1
Subject(s) - covid-19 , population , contact tracing , point (geometry) , demography , medicine , virology , environmental health , outbreak , mathematics , pathology , infectious disease (medical specialty) , disease , geometry , sociology
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, user-friendly, online tool.