Multiple Sclerosis or Neuromyelitis Optica? Re-evaluating an 18th-century Illness Using 21st-century Software

In this paper we report the application of an extensive database of symptoms, signs, laboratory findings and illnesses, to the diagnosis of an historical figure. The medical diagnosis of Augustus d'Este (1794-1848) - widely held to be the first documented case of multiple sclerosis - is reviewed, using the detailed symptom diary, which he kept over many years, as clinical data. Some of the reported features prompted the competing claim that d'Este suffered from acute porphyria, which in turn was used in support of the hypothesis that his grandfather, King George III, also suffered from the disease. We find that multiple sclerosis is statistically the most likely diagnosis, with neuromyelitis optica a strong alternative possibility. The database did not support a diagnosis of any of the acute porphyrias.