Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding | Zendy

Klaus Desmet | Zendy; Robert E. Kopp | Zendy; Scott Kulp | Zendy; Dávid Krisztián Nagy | Zendy; Michael Oppenheimer | Zendy; Esteban RossiHansberg | Zendy; Benjamin Strauss | Zendy

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Evaluating the Economic Cost of Coastal Flooding

Author(s) -

Klaus Desmet,

Robert E. Kopp,

Scott Kulp,

Dávid Krisztián Nagy,

Michael Oppenheimer,

Esteban RossiHansberg,

Benjamin Strauss

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

american economic journal macroeconomics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 10.443

H-Index - 61

eISSN - 1945-7707

pISSN - 1945-7715

DOI - 10.1257/mac.20180366

Subject(s) - flooding (psychology) , greenhouse gas , investment (military) , probabilistic logic , economics , population , environmental science , natural resource economics , sea level rise , econometrics , climate change , geography , statistics , oceanography , mathematics , geology , psychology , demography , sociology , politics , political science , law , psychotherapist

Sea level rise will cause spatial shifts in economic activity over the next 200 years. Using a spatially disaggregated, dynamic model of the world economy, this paper estimates the consequences of probabilistic projections of local sea level changes. Under an intermediate scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, permanent flooding is projected to reduce global real GDP by 0.19 percent in present value terms. By the year 2200, a projected 1.46 percent of the population will be displaced. Losses in coastal localities are much larger. When ignoring the dynamic response of investment and migration, the loss in real GDP in 2200 increases from 0.11 percent to 4.5 percent. (JEL E23, F01, Q54, Q56)

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