Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling | Zendy

Itzhak Gilboa | Zendy; Andrew Postlewaite | Zendy; David Schmeidler | Zendy

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Probability and Uncertainty in Economic Modeling

Author(s) -

Itzhak Gilboa,

Andrew Postlewaite,

David Schmeidler

Publication year - 2008

Publication title -

the journal of economic perspectives

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 9.614

H-Index - 196

eISSN - 1944-7965

pISSN - 0895-3309

DOI - 10.1257/jep.22.3.173

Subject(s) - probabilistic logic , economic model , event (particle physics) , bayesian probability , positive economics , economics , statistical model , computer science , psychology , microeconomics , artificial intelligence , physics , quantum mechanics

Economic modeling assumes, for the most part, that agents are Bayesian, that is, that they entertain probabilistic beliefs, objective or subjective, regarding any event in question. We argue that the formation of such beliefs calls for a deeper examination and for explicit modeling. Models of belief formation may enhance our understanding of the probabilistic beliefs when these exist, and may also help us characterize situations in which entertaining such beliefs is neither realistic nor necessarily rational.

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