Classroom Games: Understanding Bayes’ Rule | Zendy

Charles A. Holt | Zendy; Lisa R. Anderson | Zendy

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Classroom Games: Understanding Bayes’ Rule

Author(s) -

Charles A. Holt,

Lisa R. Anderson

Publication year - 1996

Publication title -

the journal of economic perspectives

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 9.614

H-Index - 196

eISSN - 1944-7965

pISSN - 0895-3309

DOI - 10.1257/jep.10.2.179

Subject(s) - bayes' theorem , intuition , bayesian probability , bayes factor , computer science , mathematical economics , heuristic , set (abstract data type) , simple (philosophy) , bayesian game , bayesian inference , bayesian statistics , mathematics education , artificial intelligence , machine learning , econometrics , game theory , mathematics , psychology , repeated game , epistemology , philosophy , programming language , cognitive science

This paper uses the technique of experimental economics to set up a classroom situation where students learn to make Bayesian decisions. The exercises allow students to discover for themselves a natural counting heuristic that corresponds to Bayes's rule and is much quicker to use in many situations. In the context of balls and urns, this heuristic involves adjusting ball counts to reflect prior probabilities. It provides a natural bridge between simple intuition and the mathematical formula for Bayes's rule that is presented in undergraduate courses in economic statistics, game theory, and managerial economics.

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