Prevalence Trends of Diabetes Subgroups in the United States: A Data-driven Analysis Spanning Three Decades From NHANES (1988-2018)

Context Data-driven diabetes subgroups were proposed as an alternative to address diabetes heterogeneity. However, changes in trends for these subgroups have not been reported. Objective Here, we analyzed trends of diabetes subgroups, stratified by sex, race, education level, age categories, and time since diabetes diagnosis in the United States. Methods We used data from consecutive NHANES cycles spanning the 1988-2018 period. Diabetes subgroups (mild obesity-related [MOD], severe insulin-deficient [SIDD], severe insulin-resistant [SIRD], and mild age-related diabetes [MARD]) were classified using validated self-normalizing neural networks. Severe autoimmune diabetes (SAID) was assessed for NHANES-III. Prevalence was estimated using examination sample weights considering bicyclic changes (BCs) to evaluate trends and changes over time. Results Diabetes prevalence in the United States increased from 7.5% (95% CI 7.1-7.9) in 1988-1989 to 13.9% (95% CI 13.4-14.4) in 2016-2018 (BC 1.09%, 95% CI 0.98-1.31, P < .001). Non-Hispanic Black people had the highest prevalence. Overall, MOD, MARD, and SIDD had an increase during the studied period. Particularly, non-Hispanic Black people had sharp increases in MARD and SIDD, Mexican Americans in SIDD, and non-Hispanic White people in MARD. Males, subjects with secondary/high school, and adults aged 40-64 years had the highest increase in MOD prevalence. Trends in diabetes subgroups sustained after stratifying time since diabetes diagnosis. Conclusion Prevalence of diabetes and its subgroups in the United States has increased from 1988 to 2018. These trends were different across sex, ethnicities, education, and age categories, indicating significant heterogeneity in diabetes within the US obesity burden, population aging, socioeconomic disparities, and lifestyle aspects could be implicated in the increasing trends of diabetes in the United States.