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Context US papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) incidence recently declined for the first time in decades, for reasons that remain unclear. Objective This work aims to evaluate PTC incidence trends, including by histologic subtype and size, and noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Design This descriptive study uses US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–18 cancer registry data (2000-2017). Patients Participants included individuals diagnosed with PTC (2000-2017) or NIFTP (2016-2017). Results During 2000 to 2015, PTC incidence increased an average 7.3% per year, (95% CI, 6.9% to 7.8%) during 2000 to 2009, and 3.7% per year (95% CI, 0.2% to 7.3%) during 2009 to 2012, before stabilizing in 2012 to 2015 (annual percentage change [APC] = 1.4% per year, 95% CI, –1.8% to 4.7%) and declining in 2015 to 2017 (APC = –4.6% per year, 95% CI, –7.6% to –1.4%). The recent declines were observed for all sizes of PTC at diagnosis. Incidence of follicular variant of PTC (FVPTC) sharply declined in 2015 to 2017, overall (APC = –21.1% per year; 95% CI, –26.5% to –15.2%) and for all tumor sizes. Observed increases in encapsulated papillary carcinoma (classical PTC subtype) and NIFTP each accounted for 10% of the decline in FVPTC. Classical PTC incidence continuously increased (2000-2009, APC = 8.7% per year, 95% CI, 8.1% to 9.4%; 2009-2017, APC = 1.0% per year, 95% CI, 0.4% to 1.5%), overall and for all sizes except smaller than 1 cm, as did incidence of other PTC variants combined (2000-2017, APC = 5.9% per year, 95% CI, 4.0% to 7.9%). Conclusion The reasons underlying PTC incidence trends were multifactorial. Sharp declines in FVPTC incidence during 2015 to 2017 coincided with clinical practice and diagnostic coding changes, including reclassification of noninvasive encapsulated FVPTC from a malignant to in situ neoplasm (NIFTP). Observed increases in NIFTP accounted for 10% of the decline in FVPTC.

Influence of Nomenclature Changes on Trends in Papillary Thyroid Cancer Incidence in the United States, 2000 to 2017