Introducing the Leapfrog Design: A Simple Bayesian Adaptive Rolling Trial Design for Accelerated Treatment Development and Optimization

The application of basic science research to the development and optimization of psychological treatments holds great potential. However, this process of clinical translation is challenging and time-consuming, and the standard route by which it proceeds is inefficient. Adaptive rolling designs, which originated within cancer treatment research, provide an alternative methodology with potential to accelerate development and optimization of psychological treatments. In such designs, multiple treatment options are tested simultaneously, with sequential Bayesian analyses used to remove poorly performing arms. Further, new treatment arms informed by the latest research findings can be introduced into the existing infrastructure as the trial progresses. These features dramatically reduce the sample sizes needed and offer a means for more rapid and efficient clinical translation. This article outlines the utility of such designs to clinical psychological science, focusing on a new variant termed the leapfrog design, and discusses their potential uses to accelerate clinical translation.