Open AccessPredictors of adverse outcome in the first and second waves of the COVID-19 pandemic: results from a UK centre
Author(s) -
Christopher Martin,
Daniel Pan,
George Hills,
Deborah Modha,
Prashanth Patel,
Laura J. Gray,
David R. Jenkins,
Linda Barton,
William J. Jones,
Nigel Brunskill,
Pranab Haldar,
Kamlesh Khunti,
Manish Pareek
Publication year - 2022
Publication title -
therapeutic advances in infectious disease
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2049-937X
pISSN - 2049-9361
DOI - 10.1177/20499361221074569
Subject(s) - medicine , hazard ratio , retrospective cohort study , pandemic , ethnic group , confidence interval , covid-19 , demographics , cohort , cohort study , demography , emergency medicine , disease , infectious disease (medical specialty) , sociology , anthropology
Background/Aims: Data concerning differences in demographics/disease severity between the first and second waves of COVID-19 are limited. We aimed to examine prognosis in patients presenting to hospital with COVID-19 amongst different ethnic groups between the first and second waves in the UK.Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we included 1763 patients presenting to a regional hospital centre in Leicester (UK) and compared those in the first ( n = 956) and second ( n = 807) waves. Admission National Early Warning Scores, mechanical ventilation and mortality rate were lower in the second wave compared with the first.Results: Thirty-day mortality risk in second wave patients was approximately half that of first wave patients [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40–0.75]. In the second wave, Black patients were at higher risk of 30-day mortality than White patients (4.73, 1.56–14.3). Conclusion: We found that disporportionately higher risks of death in patients from ethnic minority groups were not equivalent across consecutive waves of the pandemic. This suggests that risk factors for death in those from ethnic minority groups are malleable and potentially reversible. Our findings need urgent investigation in larger studies.