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Background:   Despite the frequency and negative impact of low physical activity among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), little is known about how it persists and remits over time or the factors predicting new states of low physical activity. The aim of the study was to determine the probability of a transition between states of low and nonlow physical activity in a cohort of patients with stable COPD followed for 2 years. We also investigated different potentially modifiable factors to determine whether they can predict new states of low physical activity.Methods:   We prospectively included 137 patients with stable COPD (mean age 66.9 ± 8.3 years). Physical activity was measured at baseline and at 1 and 2 years of follow up. Low physical activity was defined according to energy expenditure by cut-off points from the Fried frailty model. The likelihood of annual transition towards new states and recovery was calculated. We evaluated demographic, frailty, nonrespiratory, and respiratory variables as potential predictors, using generalized estimating equations.Results:   At baseline, 37 patients (27%) presented with low physical activity. During the study period, a total of 179 annual transitions were identified with nonlow physical activity at the beginning of the year; 17.5% transitioned to low physical activity. In contrast, 34.3% of the 67 transitions that started with low physical activity recovered. Predictors of transition to new states of low physical activity were dyspnea ⩾2 (odds ratio = 3.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.20–8.61) and poor performance on the five sit-to-stand test (odds ratio = 4.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.30–17.47).Conclusions:   The change between levels of low and nonlow physical activity is dynamic, especially for recovery. Annual transitions toward new states of low physical activity are likely among patients with dyspnea or poor performance on the five sit-to-stand test. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Patterns and predictors of low physical activity in patients with stable COPD: a longitudinal study