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Plenty of marine crude oil generated by the Middle–Upper Ordovician source rocks has been discovered in the Tabei Uplift, Tarim Basin. Previous studies on the extensively distributed low organic matter source rock total organic carbon ≤ 0.5%) imply that this contributes to oil accumulation. Thus, the identification of present-day low-total organic carbon source rocks that experience hydrocarbon expulsion and evaluation of their contribution is of considerable significance to analyze marine oil accumulation and to assess the resources in the Tarim Basin. Using the mass balance approach, we identify and verify present-day low-total organic carbon carbonate source rocks and present a quantitative model using well-logging data to predict the present-day low-total organic carbon carbonate source rocks in order to evaluate their contribution in the Tarim Basin. Hydrocarbon expulsion has occurred in the Yijianfang formation, which has present-day low-total organic carbon, between 6452 and 6487 m in the Yangwu 2 well. In the horizons depicting carbonates with hydrocarbon expulsion, the porosity is relatively high and the daily oil production is 0.19 m 3  according to the perforation tests. The extracts have similar biomarker signatures to that of the crude oils in the Tabei Uplift. In this study, a quick and cost-effective quantitative model is developed using double lateral resistivity and uranium/thorium well-logging data. By applying the prediction model, the contribution of present-day low-total organic carbon carbonate source rocks in the Middle–Upper Ordovician formation of the Tarim Basin is primarily evaluated to be 363.38 × 10 9  bbl oil equivalent.

Quantitative prediction model of present-day low-TOC carbonate source rocks: Example from the Middle–upper Ordovician in the Tarim Basin