Modelling the Number of People per Physician, Nurse, and Midwives in Turkey in Terms of Reproductive Health Indicators

Health worker density and distribution is critical for a strong health system and therefore has been listed among 1 of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) targets. The present study aims to model the number of persons per physician, nurse, and midwives in Turkey until 2030 and to make estimates for better reproductive health outcomes. We used time series of people per physician, nurse, and midwife between the years 1928 and 2018. Estimates were obtained via the Box-Jenkins and Brown Exponential Smoothing Methods. The results of this study showed that both designed models provide a high diagnostic value to predict the number of person per doctor, nurse, and midwives. The goodness of fit criteria for both models was statistically significant. The results predict a slight decrease in the number of people per physician, a more significant decrease in the number of people per nurse, but no decrease in the number of people per midwives until 2030. We argue that there will not be much progress in reproductive health indicators if the health workforce progresses with the same trend in the coming years. We recommend decision-makers to re-consider the health workforce planning, especially in terms of the number of the person per nurses, for better reproductive health outcomes.