Dominant Synoptic Disturbance in the Extreme Rainfall at Cherrapunji, Northeast India, Based on 104 Years of Rainfall Data (1902–2005)

The characteristics of active rainfall spells (ARSs) at Cherrapunji, northeast India, where extreme high rainfall is experienced, and their relationships with large-scale dynamics were studied using daily rainfall data from 1902 to 2005 and Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis from 1958 to 2005. Extreme high daily rainfalls occur in association with ARSs. The extremely large amounts of rainfall in the monsoon season are determined by the cumulative rainfall during ARSs. ARSs start when anomalous anticyclonic circulation (AAC) at 850 hPa propagates westward from the South China Sea and western North Pacific, and covers the northern Bay of Bengal. The AAC propagates farther westward and suppresses convection over central India during ARSs at Cherrapunji, and continues for 3 to 14 days. Consequently, a northward shift of the monsoon trough during the “break” in the Indian core region occurs. The westerly wind, which prevails in the northern portion of the AAC, transports moisture toward northeast India and en...