Impacts of ENSO on Philippine Tropical Cyclone Activity

This study investigates the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contribution to Philippine tropical cyclone (TC) variability, for a range of quarterly TC metrics. Philippine TC activity is found to depend on both ENSO quarter and phase. TC counts during El Nino phases differ significantly from neutral phases in all quarters, whereas neutral and La Nina phases differ only in January–March and July–September. Differences in landfalls between neutral and El Nino phases are significant in January–March and October–December and in January–March for neutral and La Nina phases. El Nino and La Nina landfalls are significantly different in April–June and October–December. Philippine neutral and El Nino TC genesis cover broader longitude–latitude ranges with similar long tracks, originating farther east in the western North Pacific. In El Nino phases, the mean eastward displacement of genesis locations and more recurving TCs reduce Philippine TC frequencies. Proximity of La Nina TC genesis to the Philippine...