The Magnitude and Causes of Global Drought Changes in the Twenty-First Century under a Low–Moderate Emissions Scenario

Atmospheric demand for moisture and dry days are expected to increase, leading to drying over land in the twenty-first century. Here, the magnitude and key drivers of this drying are investigated using model simulations under a low–moderate scenario, RCP4.5. The self-calibrated Palmer drought severity index with the Penman–Monteith potential evapotranspiration (PET) (sc_PDSI_pm), top 10-cm soil moisture (SM), and runoff (R) from 14 models are analyzed. The change patterns are found to be comparable while the magnitude differs among these measures of drought. The frequency of the SM-based moderate (severe) agricultural drought could increase by 50%–100% (100%–200%) in a relative sense by the 2090s over most of the Americas, Europe, and southern Africa and parts of East and West Asia and Australia. Runoff-based hydrological drought frequency could also increase by 10%–50% over most land areas despite increases in mean runoff. The probability density functions (PDFs) flatten, enhancing the drought in...