Probabilistic Gaussian Copula Regression Model for Multisite and Multivariable Downscaling

Atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are useful to simulate large-scale climate evolutions. However, AOGCM data resolution is too coarse for regional and local climate studies. Downscaling techniques have been developed to refine AOGCM data and provide information at more relevant scales. Among a wide range of available approaches, regression-based methods are commonly used for downscaling AOGCM data. When several variables are considered at multiple sites, regression models are employed to reproduce the observed climate characteristics at small scale, such as the variability and the relationship between sites and variables. This study introduces a probabilistic Gaussian copula regression (PGCR) model for simultaneously downscaling multiple variables at several sites. The proposed PGCR model relies on a probabilistic framework to specify the marginal distribution for each downscaled variable at a given day through AOGCM predictors, and handles multivariate dependence between sites ...