The Arctic–Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation*

The Atlantic Ocean's thermohaline circulation is an important modulator of global climate. Its northern branch extends through the Nordic Seas to the cold Arctic, a region that appears to be particularly influenced by climate change. A thermohaline circulation is fundamentally concerned with two degrees of freedom. This is in particular the case for the inflow of warm and saline Atlantic Water through the Nordic Seas toward the Arctic that is balanced by two branches of outflow. The authors present an analytical model, rooted in observations, that constrains the strength and structure of this Arctic–Atlantic thermohaline circulation. It is found, maybe surprisingly, that the strength of Atlantic inflow is relatively insensitive to anomalous freshwater input; it mainly reflects changes in northern heat loss. Freshwater anomalies are predominantly balanced by the inflow's partition into estuarine and overturning circulation with southward polar outflow in the surface and dense overflow at depth, res...