Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking | Zendy

Jana Sillmann | Zendy; Mischa CrociMaspoli | Zendy; Malaak Kallache | Zendy; Richard W. Katz | Zendy

AI Assistant Blog Pricing

Home ZAIA Blog

Open Access

Extreme Cold Winter Temperatures in Europe under the Influence of North Atlantic Atmospheric Blocking

Author(s) -

Jana Sillmann,

Mischa CrociMaspoli,

Malaak Kallache,

Richard W. Katz

Publication year - 2011

Publication title -

journal of climate

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 3.315

H-Index - 287

eISSN - 1520-0442

pISSN - 0894-8755

DOI - 10.1175/2011jcli4075.1

Subject(s) - climatology , environmental science , blocking (statistics) , extreme value theory , climate model , atmospheric sciences , quantile , atmospheric model , atmospheric circulation , climate change , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , statistics , mathematics , economics , econometrics

North Atlantic atmospheric blocking conditions explain part of the winter climate variability in Europe, being associated with anomalous cold winter temperatures. In this study, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution isfitted tomonthlyminimaof Europeanwinter6-hourlyminimumtemperatures fromthe ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate model simulations and the ECMWF reanalysis product known as ERA40, with an indicator for atmospheric blocking conditions being used as covariate. It is demonstrated that relating the location and scale parameter of the GEV distribution to atmospheric blocking improves the fit to extreme minimum temperatures in large areas of Europe. The climate model simulations agree reasonably with ERA-40 in the present climate (1961‐2000). Under the influence of atmospheric blocking, a decrease in the 0.95th quantiles of extreme minimum temperatures can be distinguished. This cooling effect of atmospheric blocking is, however, diminished in future climate simulations because of a shift in blocking location, and thus reduces the chances of very cold winters in northeastern parts of Europe.

The content you want is available to Zendy users.

Already have an account? Click here to sign in.

Having issues? You can contact us here

Accelerating Research