Open AccessInfluence of Rainfall Scenario Construction Methods on Runoff Projections
Author(s) -
Freddie Mpelasoka,
Francis H. S. Chiew
Publication year - 2009
Publication title -
journal of hydrometeorology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.733
H-Index - 123
eISSN - 1525-755X
pISSN - 1525-7541
DOI - 10.1175/2009jhm1045.1
Subject(s) - surface runoff , environmental science , scaling , climatology , gcm transcription factors , climate change , series (stratigraphy) , precipitation , climate model , scale (ratio) , downscaling , hydrology (agriculture) , meteorology , general circulation model , mathematics , geology , geography , ecology , paleontology , oceanography , geometry , cartography , geotechnical engineering , biology
The future rainfall series used to drive hydrological models in most climate change impact studies is informed by global climate models (GCMs). This paper compares future runoff projections in ∼11 000 0.25° grid cells across Australia from a daily rainfall–runoff model driven with future daily rainfall series obtained using three simple scaling methods, informed by 14 GCMs. In the constant scaling and daily scaling methods, the historical daily rainfall series is scaled by the relative difference between GCM simulations for the future and historical climates. The constant scaling method scales all the daily rainfall by the same factor, and the daily scaling method takes into account changes in the daily rainfall distribution by scaling the different daily rainfall amounts differently. In the daily translation method, the GCM future daily rainfall series is translated to a 0.25° gridcell rainfall series using the relationship established between the historical GCM-scale rainfall and 0.25° gridcell...
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