On the Estimation of Trends in Annual Rainfall Using Paired Gauge Observations

A method was recently proposed for evaluating the impact of a perturbation, such as air pollution or urbanization, on the precipitation at a location by calculating the ratio between the precipitation at the perturbed location and that at a location believed to be unperturbed. However, this method may be inappropriate because of the high degree of variability of precipitation at each of the stations. To explore the validity of this approach, noisy annual rainfall records are generated numerically in an upwind, unperturbed station and in a downwind, perturbed station, and the time series of ratio between the annual rainfalls in the two stations is analyzed. The noisy rainfall records are 50 yr long, and the imposed trend for the downwind, perturbed station is −2 mm yr−1 while at the upwind station the variations in annual rainfall are purely noisy. Many pairs of noisy rainfall records are numerically generated (each pair constitutes an experiment), and in every experiment the slope of the linear b...