Structural Change and the Fertility Transition | Zendy

Philipp Ager | Zendy; Benedikt Herz | Zendy; Markus Brüeckner | Zendy

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Structural Change and the Fertility Transition

Author(s) -

Philipp Ager,

Benedikt Herz,

Markus Brüeckner

Publication year - 2019

Publication title -

the review of economics and statistics

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 8.999

H-Index - 165

eISSN - 1530-9142

pISSN - 0034-6535

DOI - 10.1162/rest_a_00851

Subject(s) - fertility , agriculture , earnings , economics , labour economics , demographic economics , production (economics) , agricultural economics , geography , demography , population , microeconomics , accounting , archaeology , sociology

This paper provides new insights into the relationship between structural change and the fertility transition. We exploit the spread of an agricultural pest in the American South in the 1890s as plausibly exogenous variation in agricultural production to establish a causal link between earnings opportunities in agriculture and fertility. Households staying in agriculture reduced fertility because children are a normal good, while households switching to manufacturing reduced fertility because of the higher opportunity costs of raising children. The lower earnings opportunities in agriculture also decreased the value of child labor, which increased schooling, consistent with a quantity-quality model of fertility.

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