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Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?
Author(s) -
Alexander Chudík,
Kamiar Mohaddes,
M. Hashem Pesaran,
Mehdi Raissi
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
the review of economics and statistics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 8.999
H-Index - 165
eISSN - 1530-9142
pISSN - 0034-6535
DOI - 10.1162/rest_a_00593
Subject(s) - debt , economics , panel data , threshold model , context (archaeology) , econometrics , sample (material) , empirical evidence , monetary economics , macroeconomics , geography , philosophy , chemistry , epistemology , chromatography , archaeology
This paper studies the relationship between public debt expansion and economic growth and investigates whether the debt-growth relation varies with the level of indebtedness. We contribute theoretically by developing tests for threshold effects in the context of dynamic heterogeneous panel data models with cross-sectionally dependent errors. In the empirical application, using data on a sample of forty countries over the 1965–2010 period, we find no evidence for a universally applicable threshold effect in the relationship between public debt and economic growth. Regardless of the threshold, however, we find significant negative effects of public debt buildup on output growth.

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