THE EFFECTS OF UNEXPECTED EVENTS BETWEEN 1990-2012 ON DOLAR SELLING PRICE IN TURKEY

Expectations regarding the economical and political changes affect directly dollar selling prices. In the finance literature, many studies reveal the relationship between unexpected events and stock prices. However a few studies investigate such a relationship between unexpected events and dollar selling prices in Turkey. This study aims to explain the effect of unexpected events on dollar selling prices in Turkey, for the period 1990-2012which starts with the ‘The invasion of Kuwait-2/8/1990”and ends with ‘Upgrading of Turkey’s credit rate by Fitch-6/11/2012’. In order to explain the relationship, event study methodology proposed by MacKinley (1997) is used.The data has been analyzed by two different normal return calculation methods: Constant mean return model (CMR), Mean adjusted return model (MAR). According to both calculation methods, in the most of the post-period days the results are statistically significant. The importance of this study is to show whether significant abnormal returns exist around unexpected events which may lead for the position of the investors.