Five-Year Risk of Major Ischemic and Hemorrhagic Events After Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Background and Purpose— We aimed to determine incidences and predictors of major vascular events in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) survivors. Methods— We did a prospective observational cohort study in patients with spontaneous ICH from the Prognosis of Intracerebral Hemorrhage cohort in Lille, France. We studied incidences and predictors of long-term vascular events (cerebral and extracerebral, ischemic and hemorrhagic) in patients alive at 30 days with a prespecified subgroup analysis according to ICH location. We performed multivariable analyses (competing risk analyses, with death during follow-up as a competing event). Results— From the 560 patients with spontaneous ICH enrolled between November 2004 and March 2009, we included 310 patients (median age, 70 years). Eighty-two patients presented at least 1 major vascular event leading to an incidence rate of 20.0% (95% CI, 15.7–24.7) at 5 years after ICH. In the overall cohort, ischemic events were more frequent than hemorrhagic events. However, the incidence strikingly differed according to ICH location: deep ICH was associated with future ischemic events (subhazard ratio, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.01–3.40), whereas lobar ICH with hemorrhagic events (subhazard ratio, 2.38; 95% CI, 1.17–4.86). In deep ICH, the incidence of ischemic events at 5 years was 6× higher than the incidence of hemorrhagic events. Conclusions— ICH survivors are at high risk of both cerebral and extracerebral vascular events. The ischemic or hemorrhagic risk profile varies according to the index ICH location with a stronger ischemic risk in deep ICH. Secondary prevention, tailored on ICH location, should target not only cerebral recurrences but also extracerebral vascular events.