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For the 1254 persons in the Framingham Heart Study who survived to age 65 without prior cardiovascular disease or prior use of antihypertensive medications, significant univariate correlates of the development of cardiovascular disease after age 65 included (1) the systolic blood pressure at age 65, (2) the average systolic blood pressure before age 65, and (3) the slope of blood pressure change up to age 65. After controlling for the systolic blood pressure at age 65, average pre-age 65 blood pressure remained significant (p less than 0.05) and the slope of the pre-age 65 blood pressure was marginally significant (p = 0.06). Even after controlling for the mean of up to three blood pressure measurements at age 65, an average systolic blood pressure of 160 mm Hg or greater before age 65 was an independently significant predictor of the post-age 65 development of cardiovascular disease (rate ratio = 1.79; 95% confidence interval = 1.04, 3.07). These data suggest that even after performing multiple measurements at a single examination, knowledge of past systolic blood pressure history, especially if it averages 160 mm Hg or greater, adds a small but statistically significant increment in predicting future cardiovascular disease in the elderly.

Blood pressure experience and risk of cardiovascular disease in the elderly.