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Indirect blood pressure (BP) was measured by mercury sphygmomanometer on 3524 children, ages 5-14 years, representative of a defined geographic population. Year 1 to Year 4 correlations ranged from 0.52 to 0.63 systolic blood pressure (SBP) and from 0.23 to 0.45 diastolic 4th phase blood pressure (DBP4). Some 55% of those originally in the upper decile remained in the uppermost two deciles 3 years later. All children ages 5, 8, 11, and 14 years were reexamined annually, and the mean year-to-year standard deviation (SD) within the child was computed to be 5.5 mm Hg SBP and 5.9 mm Hg DBP. After 3 years, for all available children (n = 2601) the age-specific cross-sectional SD was found to be 8.7-9.7 mm Hg SBP and 7.6-8.0 mm Hg DBP. These data enabled us to quantify the regression to the mean due to within-child variation for the uppermost and the lowest decile BP, using the Gardner-Heady model. These children had an average BP at examination that differed from the expected level (adjusting for regression to the mean due to within-child variation) by 1 mm Hg SBP and DBP. Quantification of the degree to which children's BP "tracks" is important for early diagnosis and intervention in high BP.

Time course study of blood pressure in children over a three-year period. Bogalusa Heart Study.