Predictive value of systolic blood pressure in young men for elevated systolic blood pressure 12 to 15 years later.

Systolic blood pressure (SBP) was determined annually for 12 to 15 years in 719 men, 18 to 30 years old at entry into the study. SBP values at entry were compared with those measured in the same individuals at the end of the follow-up period. The cutoff point separating "normal" from "elevated" SBP was arbitrarily set at 140 mm Hg. The highest SBP recorded at entry was 170 mm Hg. Elevated SBP on follow-up was 2.3 times more common among subjects with elevated SBP at entry. Yet, 89.2% of the subjects with elevated SBP at entry had a normal SBP on follow-up. A normal SBP at entry did not reduce the risk of elevated SBP on follow-up.