Prediction of Train Station Delay Based on Multiattention Graph Convolution Network

Train station delay prediction is always one of the core research issues in high-speed railway dispatching. Reliable prediction of station delay can help dispatchers to accurately estimate the train operation status and make reasonable dispatching decisions to improve the operation and service quality of rail transit. The delay of one station is affected by many factors, such as spatiotemporal factor, speed limitation or suspension caused by strong wind or bad weather, and high passenger flow caused by major holiday. But previous studies have not fully combined the spatiotemporal characteristics of station delay and the impact of external factors. This paper makes good use of the train operation data, proposes the multiattention mechanism to capture the spatiotemporal characteristics of train operation data and process the external factors, and establishes a Multiattention Train Station Delay Graph Convolution Network (MATGCN) model to predict the train delay at high-speed railway stations, so as to provide references for train dispatching and emergency plan. This paper uses real train operation data coming from China high-speed railway network to prove that our model is superior to ANN, SVR, LSTM, RF, and TSTGCN models in the prediction effect of MAE, RMSE, and MAPE.