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In recent years, with the continuous development and progress of information technology and science and technology, big data has entered all walks of life, integrated into the lives of the public, and has become a necessity for social operation; the gradual development of artificial intelligence has also made life in modern times. People in society are more and more convenient. However, the development of science and technology is also accompanied by corresponding problems, and the war in information has gradually started. This paper simulates the possible information security through the hidden Markov model and then verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the situation assessment method and the situation prediction method, in order to effectively evaluate the relevant information security level and effectively predict the accuracy of the situation value. The experimental results show that the fluctuation of the situation value corresponds to the different attack behaviors carried out by the attacker, accurately describes the information security status of the system, and verifies the effectiveness and accuracy of the situational awareness method proposed in this paper, while the situation prediction method based on ARIMA predictable short-term changes in situational values can be used for short-term forecasts that require high accuracy.

Evaluation and Prediction Method of System Security Situational Awareness Index Based on HMM Model