A Study on Disabling Injuries Prediction of Taiwan Occupational Disaster with Grey Rolling Model

In order to protect the safety and health of laborers and to achieve the goal of zero occupational accidents at work, the study takes the top three industries with the highest number of laborers inspections from 2010 to 2019, namely, construction, manufacturing, wholesale, and retail as the research object. Using three major indicators of disability injury including Disabling Frequency Rate, Disabling Severity Rate, and Frequency Severity Indicator as parameters, it applies grey theory to establish a GM (1,1) rolling forecast model. It further predicts the trend of disability injuries from 2020 to 2025. Based on the optimized GM (1,1) rolling model, the results show that there has the highest accuracy rate in the prediction of Disabling Frequency Rate (accuracy is 95.235% in K7) in construction. Disabling Severity Rate and Frequency Severity Indicator are both in wholesale and retail industries (accuracy is 97.044% in K6 and accuracy is 99.906% in K5). Therefore, Disabling Severity Rate has an upward trend, which is due to the common type of traffic accidents in the wholesale and retail industry. The study further proposes that relevant actual disaster cases could be the training materials and strengthen the communication in education to improve workers’ safety awareness for occupational disaster prevention.