Risk Evaluation on China Government Bonds with EWMAVaR and SVM Methods

This research studies the strategy of risk evaluation of China government bonds with the latest data. The angle of evaluation focuses on the interest rate and the stability risk, employing the EWMAVaR and SVM methods. The weights of each risk indicator are determined by the entropy method. Experimental results show that the risk of government bonds is stable in recent years. However, the impact of COVID-19 cannot be ignored because the risk level increased in the year 2020. The issuing of one trillion special antipandemic bonds could explain the fluctuation of the market because the fiscal incomes of Chinese government decreased in 2020 and could not be recovered in a short time. The experimental results show that the method proposed in this paper has a better performance than the existing methods, and it can help well in realizing the risk assessment of government bonds.