Risk Evolution of Ship Oil Spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area | Zendy

Jie Yin | Zendy; Ting Xiong | Zendy

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Risk Evolution of Ship Oil Spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area

Author(s) -

Jie Yin,

Ting Xiong

Publication year - 2021

Publication title -

mathematical problems in engineering

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.262

H-Index - 62

eISSN - 1026-7077

pISSN - 1024-123X

DOI - 10.1155/2021/8197944

Subject(s) - three gorges , oil spill , environmental science , risk assessment , risk analysis (engineering) , petroleum engineering , marine engineering , engineering , environmental engineering , geotechnical engineering , computer science , business , computer security

Ship oil spill accident will lead to enormous hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The risk mitigation of the ship oil spill is significant to the stakeholder of the maritime safety administration. To study the risk evolution of the ship oil spill in the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the framework of ship oil spill risk evolution was proposed according to the general definition of the risk; then, risk evolutions were analyzed from the perspectives of expected probability, system constraints of accident developing, and possible harmful consequences based on accidents analyses, simulation experiments, and structural equation model analysis. The results indicate that the system constraints of accident developing, such as the quantity of oil spills, free evolution time, and wind and flow conditions, have significant impacts on risk evolution of the ship oil spill after the occurrence of an accident in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.

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