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Oil production and water cut prediction is one of the most important research contents of reservoir production performance analysis. The growth curve method has the advantages of the general water drive curve method and the combined solution model method with fewer parameters and simple and fast calculation process and so it has been widely used in well production prediction. Based on the analysis of 4W and 4Y4 model growth curves, a new generalized growth curve of the well production performance is proposed. The new model can forecast cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut at different oilfield development periods. A MATLAB program was developed to derive the parameters in the new model. The built model was applied to the production data of the Samattalol oilfield and Daqing oilfield. The predicted cumulative oil production, annual oil production, and water cut are all close to the actual production data, and satisfactory results are obtained, which demonstrates the practicability and reliability of the new model.

A New Growth Curve for Predicting Production Performance of Water-Flooding Oilfields