Predicting the Impacts of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Food Supply Chains and Their Sustainability: A Simulation Study

The COVID-19 pandemic has continued to result in severe disruptions to food supply chains. In this research, we present a simulation study on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on food supply chains and their sustainability using the lobster industry in Nova Scotia, Canada, as an example. The main contributions of this paper are twofold. First, it analyzes how the pandemic has negatively disrupted lobster supply chains and their sustainability. Second, it demonstrates how a simulation-based methodology based on the software AnyLogistix can be applied to examine the effects of a pandemic on food supply chains. We show the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic from four perspectives: production-inventory dynamics, customer performance, financial performance, and lead-time performance. Our findings include the following. First, the pandemic has created a backlog problem for the live lobster industry. Second, it has significantly increased the lead time of the lobster supply chain. Overall, this research can help the government and trade organizations to devise appropriate policies to reduce the negative impacts of the pandemic on food supply chains and their sustainability.