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Total concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn in sediment samples obtained from Wami Estuary in Tanzania were used to generate contaminant probability density distributions and species sensitivity distributions using the AQUARISK model. Results of tier 1 assessment showed that As, Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn were not of concern as their measured values and the 99 th  percentile of the fitted distributions were lower than the SQG low-trigger values. However, Cu was identified as of concern in this estuary. According to the Bur III distributional analysis of the exotoxicological data, the estimated percentage of species likely to be affected is 3.4, 79.4, 79.8, 99.9, 98.4, and 98.0 for As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn, respectively. Lowering of the current median concentrations of metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, and Zn) is recommended as they exceeded modeled median target sediment concentration to achieve 95% or higher for species protection. With the ongoing increase in anthropogenic activities in the Wami River catchment, the environmental regulatory bodies may use the findings of the present study and augmented with AQUARISK to set discharge standards for various contaminants in order to minimize impacts to the receiving ecosystems.

Assessment of Ecological Risk of Heavy Metals Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model (AQUARISK) in Surface Sediments from Wami Estuary, Tanzania