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Great efforts have been made to curb soil erosion and restore the natural environment to Inner Mongolia in China. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impact of returning farmland to the forest on soil erosion on a regional scale. Considering that rainfall erosivity also has an important impact on soil erosion, the effect of land use and land cover change (LUCC) on soil erosion was evaluated through scenario construction. Firstly, the universal soil loss equation (USLE) model was used to evaluate the actual soil erosion (2001 and 2010). Secondly, two scenarios (scenario 1 and scenario 2) were constructed by assuming that the land cover and rainfall-runoff erosivity are fixed, respectively, and soil erosion under different scenarios was estimated. Finally, the effect of LUCC on soil erosion was evaluated by comparing the soil erosion under actual situations with the hypothetical scenarios. The results show that both land use/cover change and rainfall-runoff erosivity change have significant effects on soil erosion. The land use and land cover change initiated by the ecological restoration projects have obviously reduced the soil erosion in this area. The results also reveal that the method proposed in this paper is helpful to clarify the influencing factors of soil erosion.

Estimating the Impact of Land Cover Change on Soil Erosion Using Remote Sensing and GIS Data by USLE Model and Scenario Design