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Estimation of Sea Level Change in the South China Sea from Satellite Altimetry Data
Author(s) -
Shanwei Liu,
Y. Q. Jiao,
Qinting Sun,
Jinghui Jiang
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
scientific programming
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.269
H-Index - 36
eISSN - 1875-919X
pISSN - 1058-9244
DOI - 10.1155/2021/6618135
Subject(s) - climatology , autoregressive model , term (time) , anomaly (physics) , sea level , altimeter , autoregressive integrated moving average , time series , empirical orthogonal functions , environmental science , estimation , series (stratigraphy) , satellite , statistics , meteorology , mathematics , geography , geology , physical geography , paleontology , physics , management , condensed matter physics , quantum mechanics , aerospace engineering , engineering , economics
-e South China Sea is China’s largest marginal sea area, and it is rich in oil and gas mineral resources; thus, estimating its sea level changes is of practical significance. Based on linear and nonlinear sea level change characteristics, this paper decomposes 1992–2019 monthly mean sea level anomaly time series in the South China Sea into trend, seasonal, and random terms.-is paper compares the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) and Prophet models for estimating the trend and seasonal terms and the long short-term memory (LSTM) and radial basis function (RBF) models for estimating random terms, and the more suitable models were selected. A Prophet-LSTM combined model was developed based on the accuracy results. -is paper uses the combined model to study the effect of known data length on the experimental results and determines the best prediction duration. -e results show that the combined model is suitable for short-term and medium-term estimations of 12–36 months. -e accuracy at 36 months is 0.962 cm, which proves that the combined model has high application value for estimating sea level changes in the South China Sea.

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