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This paper analyzes the time-varying impacts of Chinaʼs economic growth, energy efficiency, and industrial development on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 1970 to 2019. First, we examined and found that there are two significant structural changes in the CO2 sequence over the years, and there was a significant nonlinear relationship among the four. The first nonlinear structural model constructed is the TVP regression model. According to the Bayesian model comparison criterion, TVP-SV-VAR was selected as the second constructed model from four types of VAR models containing nonlinear structures. The results show that the conduction intensity value of energy use efficiency to CO2 emissions has increased year by year, from 0.45 in 1971 to 0.97 in 2019. The short-term transmission mechanism of energy use efficiency to carbon emissions is the most significant. The conduction intensity of Chinaʼs economic growth on CO2 emissions increases year by year. Chinaʼs economic growth plays a major role in long-term CO2 emission reduction. The impact of industrial development on CO2 emissions reached a peak of 0.34 in 1977, and the intensity of the impact has basically stabilized at 0.26.

Chinaʼs Economic Growth, Energy Efficiency, and Industrial Development: Nonlinear Effects on Carbon Dioxide Emissions