Research on the Prewarning Model of Relationship Risk Levels in Industry Collaborative Innovation Alliances across Provinces in China

The governments need beforehand to perceive the innovative relationship risk because they are one of the innovation subjects in those industry collaborative innovation alliances. However, it is difficult for innovation subjects to quantify the risks for industry collaborative innovation alliances due to the complexity, nonlinear, and dynamic condition. This paper firstly constructs an ordered logistic model, uses the following as independent variables: the collaborative degree, the ratio of science technology expenditure to GDP, the ratio of education expenditure to GDP, the ratio of finances to GDP, and uses the levels of risk as the dependent variable. Then, this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces in China (Hainan is not included) from 2010 to 2018 to fit the model. Based on the fitting results, the research has gained the relationship risk prewarning model in industry collaborative innovation alliances by using the collaborative degree as an independent variable. The governments at all levels can use this relationship risk prewarning model to percept risk levels and reckon the corresponding probability which exists in industry collaborative innovation alliances. Furthermore, there are regional influences existing in the prewarning relationship risk levels in industry collaborative alliances. The east and middle areas have significant regional influence, but it does not exist among west areas and others. The governments at all levels may consider the regional differences.