Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones | Zendy

Cuiping Zhang | Zendy; Xuedong Yan | Zendy; Lu Ma | Zendy; Meiwu An | Zendy

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Crash Prediction and Risk Evaluation Based on Traffic Analysis Zones

Author(s) -

Cuiping Zhang,

Xuedong Yan,

Lu Ma,

Meiwu An

Publication year - 2014

Publication title -

mathematical problems in engineering

Language(s) - English

Resource type - Journals

SCImago Journal Rank - 0.262

H-Index - 62

eISSN - 1026-7077

pISSN - 1024-123X

DOI - 10.1155/2014/987978

Subject(s) - crash , transport engineering , index (typography) , regression analysis , estimation , engineering , risk analysis (engineering) , measure (data warehouse) , range (aeronautics) , computer science , statistics , business , mathematics , data mining , world wide web , programming language , aerospace engineering , systems engineering

Traffic safety evaluation for traffic analysis zones (TAZs) plays an important role in transportation safety planning and long-range transportation plan development. This paper aims to present a comprehensive analysis of zonal safety evaluation. First, several criteria are proposed to measure the crash risk at zonal level. Then these criteria are integrated into one measure-average hazard index (AHI), which is used to identify unsafe zones. In addition, the study develops a negative binomial regression model to statistically estimate significant factors for the unsafe zones. The model results indicate that the zonal crash frequency can be associated with several social-economic, demographic, and transportation system factors. The impact of these significant factors on zonal crash is also discussed. The finding of this study suggests that safety evaluation and estimation might benefit engineers and decision makers in identifying high crash locations for potential safety improvements

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