Open AccessAnalysis of Transport Policy Effect on CO2 Emissions Based on System Dynamics
Author(s) -
Shuang Liu,
Shaokuan Chen,
Liang Xiao,
Baohua Mao,
Shijie Jia
Publication year - 2014
Publication title -
advances in mechanical engineering/advances in mechanical engineering
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.318
H-Index - 40
eISSN - 1687-8140
pISSN - 1687-8132
DOI - 10.1155/2014/323819
Subject(s) - beijing , public transport , baseline (sea) , greenhouse gas , transport policy , system dynamics , car ownership , environmental science , environmental economics , climate change , road transport , natural resource economics , business , transport engineering , china , economics , engineering , computer science , geography , ecology , oceanography , artificial intelligence , geology , biology , archaeology
CO2 emission from the transport sector attracts the attention of both transport and climate change policymakers because of its share in total green house gas emissions and the forecast of continuous growth reported in many countries. This paper takes the urban transport in Beijing as a case and builds a system dynamics model for analysis of the motorization trend and the assessment of CO2 emissions mitigation policy. It is found that the urban transport condition and CO2 emissions would be more serious with the growth of vehicle ownership and travel demand. Compared with the baseline do-nothing scenario, the CO2 emissions could be reduced from 3.8% to 24.3% in 2020 by various transport policies. And the policy of controlling the number of passenger cars which has been carried out in Beijing and followed by some cities could achieve good results, which may help to increase the proportion of public transit to 55.6% and reduce the CO2 emission by 18.3% compared with the baseline scenario in 2020