Probabilistic Ensemble Forecast of Summertime Temperatures in Pakistan

Snowmelt flooding triggered by intense heat is a major temperature related weather hazard in northern Pakistan, and the frequency of such extreme flood events has increased during the recent years. In this study, the probabilistic temperature forecasts at seasonal and subseasonal time scales based on hindcasts simulations from three state-of-the-art models within the DEMETER project are assessed by the relative operating characteristic (ROC) verification method. Results based on direct model outputs reveal significant skill for hot summers in February 3–5 (ROC area=0.707 with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.538) and February 4-5 (ROC area=0.771 with lower 95% confidence limit of 0.623) forecasts when validated against observations. Results for ERA-40 reanalysis also show skill for hot summers. Skilful probabilistic ensemble forecasts of summertime temperatures may be valuable in providing the foreknowledge of snowmelt flooding and water management in Pakistan