Scenario Simulation of the Influence of Land Use Change on the Regional Temperature in a Rapidly Urbanizing Region: A Case Study in Southern-Jiangsu, China

It has been shown that land use change in urbanized region, especially urban land expansion, will influence regional climate. However, there has been very little research on the climate effects of the future land use change in a rapidly urbanizing region. Taking the southern part of Jiangsu province in China as the study area and through a scenario analysis, the influence of land use change on the regional temperature was analyzed from the perspective of land surface radiation budget and energy balance. The results indicated that (1) the monthly average temperature is significantly higher under the Rapid Economic Growth (REG) scenario than under the Cooperate Environmental Sustainability (CES) scenario in 2050, especially in the hottest month (July). (2) The range of high-temperature regions is much wider under the REG scenario than it is under the CES scenario in 2050. (3) The land surface net radiation and latent heat flux are two key factors through which land use change influences the regional temperature in the study area, and the latent heat flux plays a dominant role. (4) Land use change mainly influences the land surface net radiation by altering the land surface albedo and emissivity. These results are helpful to mitigate regional climate change effects caused by land use change