A Predictive Model for Daily Inoculum Levels ofGibberella zeaein Passo Fundo, Brazil

The deposition of spores of Gibberella zeae, the causal agent of Fusarium head blight of wheat, was monitored during 2008–2011, in Passo Fundo, RS, Brazil. The sampling was carried out in a 31-day period around wheat flowering. The numbers of colonies formed were related to meteorological variables. In this study, a hierarchical autoregressive binary data model was used. The model relates a binary response variable to potential covariates while accounting for dependence over discrete time points. This paper proposes an approach for both model parameter inference and prediction at future time points using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The developed model appeared to have a high degree of accuracy and may have implications in the disease control and risk-management planning