Stochastic Methodology for the Study of an Epidemic Decay Phase, Based on a Branching Model

We present a stochastic methodology to study the decay phase of an epidemic. It is based on a general stochastic epidemic process with memory, suitable to model the spread in a large open population with births of any rare transmissible disease with a random incubation period and a Reed-Frost type infection. This model, which belongs to the class of multitype branching processes in discrete time, enables us to predict the incidences of cases and to derive the probability distributions of the extinction time and of the future epidemic size. We also study the epidemic evolution in the worst-case scenario of a very late extinction time, making use of the Q-process. We provide in addition an estimator of the key parameter of the epidemic model quantifying the infection and finally illustrate this methodology with the study of the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy epidemic in Great Britain after the 1988 feed ban law