Prediction of Outcome from Community-Acquired Severe Sepsis and Septic Shock in Tertiary-Care University Hospital in a Developing Country

Our aim was to determine the risk factors on mortality in adult patients with community-acquired severe sepsis and septic shock. The main outcome measure was hospital mortality. This prospective single centre study was conducted from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2010, and included 184 patients, of whom 135 (73.4%) were with severe sepsis and 49 (26.6%) had septic shock. Overall, ninety-five (51.6%) patients have died, 60 (44.4%) in severe sepsis and 35 (71.4%) patients with septic shock. The lung was the most common site of infection 121 (65.8%), and chronic heart failure was the most frequent comorbidity 65 (35.3%). Logistic multivariate analysis identified three independent risk factors for mortality in patients with severe sepsis: positive blood culture (odds ratio, 2.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.13–5.06; P = 0.02), three or more organ dysfunctions (odds ratio, 3.93; 95% confidence interval, 1.62–9.53; P = 0.002), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II (odds ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 1.00–1.04; P = 0.01). In addition to SAPS II, positive blood culture, and three or more organ dysfunctions are important independent risk factors for mortality in patients with severe sepsis and septic shock.