Layperson-Oriented versus Clinical-Based Models for Assessing 10-Year Incidence of Coronary Heart Disease: National FINRISK Study

One laboratory-based and two non-laboratory-based models with and without blood pressure measures are developed based on data of 14815 men and 16617 women aged 25–64 years. During the followup 1134 men and 566 women developed coronary heart disease (CHD). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for prediction of CHD incidence was 0.823 (0.807–0.839) for the laboratory-based model, 0.808 (0.791–0.824) and 0.803 (0.787–0.820) for the non-laboratory-based models with and without systolic blood pressure in men ( P < 0.01 for overall comparison), and 0.878 (0.856–0.901), 0.871 (0.848–0.894), and 0.864 (0.840–0.887), respectively, in women ( P < 0.01). The predicted rates matched well with the observed ones ( P > 0.10). Compared with the model without blood pressure, the non-laboratory-based model with blood pressure tended to reclassify individuals into the higher risk categories for both event and nonevent groups in both genders. The study concludes the predictive property of the non-laboratory-based models are good.